UK polls confirm fixed majority for independence

UK polling company, Panelbase, have conducted a new set of polls for the Sunday Times newspaper, with the conclusion that what now appears to be a fixed majority (54%) of Scots are backing independence.

The latest polling also appears to validate other surveys that conclude the SNP are heading for a landslide victory in this coming May's parliamentary elections, with 'record' support for the party - the highest number concluded so far.

Pro independence logic has seen a surge in popularity, with a 55%-45% vote against support for an independent Scottish Government in 2014 now reversed into a 54%-46% lead today.

YouGov: Over half of Conservative voters in England support English independence 

It represents a five-point leap in backing for independence, with a five-point fall in support for the union since polling data was last compiled by Panelbase in March of this year.

The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Friday by Panelbase for the Sunday Times and surveyed a large sample of active voters in Scotland.

In the constituency vote, the SNP are on 55%, representing a four-point jump since March. The Tories are on 20% (-6), and Labour 15% (+1). The Liberals and Greens remain unchanged at 6% and 3% respectively. Source: Panelbase/Sunday Times

SNP set for second seismic majority

Polling expert and politics professor Sir John Curtice predicts that this will lead to another SNP majority, with the party set to claim 74 of parliament's 129 seats.

This would be 11 more than the party achieved in the 2016 election and 5 more than in 2011.

More woe for Willie Rennie and his hapless band of Liberals

Under these projections the Tories would fall by seven seats to 24, Labour down seven to 17, and the Greens would rise by three to nine with the Liberals in last place again, unchanged on five.

The poll also detailed massive public support for Nicola Sturgeon, with the country's First Minister receiving an approval rating of plus 60 for her handling of the coronavirus crisis.

The British Prime Minister is about as popular in Scotland as a swarm of midgies

By contrast, the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's rating in Scotland is minus 39.

Professor Sir John Curtice believes the balance has been tipped in favour of the SNP and independence as a result of Ms Sturgeon's handling of the health crisis, as well as the country's opposition to Brexit.

He told The Times newspaper: “Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak.

“Unsurprisingly, for many Scots, the past three months have exemplified how their own government could manage the country better with the independence of a normal country, whilst having the safety net of a much larger and less controlling Union in the EU. 

“More importantly, a crucial number of former Unionists now appear to have been persuaded of the merits of that, too.”